The development outlook of Chinas robot industry in 2016

Looking ahead to 2016, the robotics industry development opportunities and challenges, both the new technological revolution and industrial revolution deeply influence, the acceleration of transformation and upgrading of the industrial economy, the economic development of endogenous power gradually strengthen, a variety of good policy to carry out the favorable factors, constantly and have international unstable factors increase, the domestic economy downward pressure is bigger, the foreign trade situation is more serious, the enterprise financing environment is relatively poor.

In 2015, facing the complex situation at home and abroad, the robot industry achieve healthy and rapid development, to further expand the market size, application field and area to further extend, develop their own brands.Looking ahead to 2016, the robotics industry development opportunities and challenges, both the new technological revolution and industrial revolution deeply influence, the acceleration of transformation and upgrading of the industrial economy, the economic development of endogenous power gradually strengthen, a variety of good policy to carry out the favorable factors, constantly and have international unstable factors increase, the domestic economy downward pressure is bigger, the foreign trade situation is more serious, the enterprise financing environment is relatively poor.

First, the basic judgment of the situation in 2016

(a) global robot demand continues to grow

Since 2015, the international economic situation has not been optimistic. The global economic recovery has been slow, geopolitical and emergency risks have risen.But with a new round of technological revolution and industrial revolution gave birth to the rise of information fusion technology and manufacturing technology as the core of intelligent manufacturing, digital manufacturing, network manufacturing is speed up the development of new manufacturing mode, such as advanced industrial countries and regions all attach great importance to the robot industry development, the robot industry to rise to the national strategy, the above factors make the robot industry maintained rapid development, the market reaction is particularly active in Asia., according to the international robot federation in 2014 global industrial robot sales of 225000 units, up 27% from 2013, the sales in Asia account for about two-thirds, China, South Korea, Japan, the United States and Germany five big market sales accounted for about 75% of total global industrial robot sales.Between 2005 and 2014, the average annual growth rate of new industrial robots in the world was about 14%.

The development outlook of China's robot industry in 2016

It is expected that in 2016, the economic recovery momentum of developed countries will be enhanced, and the prospects for emerging economies will improve and global robot demand will continue to grow rapidly.Industrial robots are expected to grow by about 15 per cent year on year, while the americas and Europe are up about 6 per cent and Asia/Australia is up about 16 per cent.The first two sales of dedicated service robots are expected to be defence robots and milk-milking robots, which account for about half of the sales of service robots.The service robots used for personal/household services are expected to sell 8 million units and are dominated by domestic robots such as vacuuming, mowing, Windows and other domestic robots as well as recreation and leisure robots.The development outlook of China's robot industry in 2016

(2) China's industrial robot market has expanded rapidly

Since 2015, the downward pressure on our economy has intensified, and enterprises have faced difficulties and challenges that exceed expectations.Affected by domestic and foreign economic comprehensive, at the same time, along with the rapid rise in labor costs, demographic dividend gradually disappear, industrial enterprise of including industrial robots, automation, intelligent equipment demand rising fast.Robot industry achieve healthy and rapid development in our country, the industrial robot in our country new installed capacity in 2014 of 57000 units, accounting for about a quarter of global sales, up 55% from a year earlier, has grown to 190000 units.

Is expected in 2016, our country the development of robot industry still faces more complex situation, but as the domestic "steady growth" policy effect further, the acceleration of transformation and upgrading of the industrial economy, the economic development of endogenous power gradually increase, more needs to be for industrial structure adjustment and improve the ecological environment, industrial robots in China new installed capacity is expected to maintain a faster growth, is expected to grow at an annual rate of 30%.

(3) the autonomous brand robots have been growing and growing

Since 2015, when "made in China 2025" and the key areas of technology roadmap will release and national hair change three ministries and commissions such as "intelligent manufacturing equipment innovation and development project implementation plan", and the ministry of industry and information technology in the intelligent manufacturing pilot demonstration special action such as the implementation of the policy, the acceleration of robot developing independent brands.First, industrial robots are developing rapidly.Take xinsong robot company as an example, in January and July 2015, the company has realized the production and sales of more than 1800 sets of robots, realizing the production value of about 2.8 billion yuan.It is expected to sell more than 3500 sets of robots in 2015, which can achieve sales revenue of more than 5 billion yuan.Second, the autonomous brand service robot began to work.Is a cleaning robot sales surged in 2015, the "double a" division, sales of 315 million, sweeping robot to treasure every single product sales to 100 million, is a major breakthrough in home service robot industry.The second is the acceleration of self-balancing vehicle development. In 2014, domestic balance vehicle market sales volume was about 1 billion yuan.At present, the domestic balance car market already has Ninebot, i-robot, popular, easy step technology, music and other brands.Third, the localization of robot parts is accelerated.Guangzhou CNC developed a series of drive and servo motor products, which broke the situation of industrial robot driver and servo motor being monopolized by foreign countries.Wuhan endeavour robot company has realized the production of key components such as motion controller and precision reducer.

Is expected in 2016, with the "" much starker choices-and graver consequences-in" strategic emerging industry development planning ", "" much starker choices-and graver consequences-in" robot industry development planning ", new policies to promote industrial structure adjustment and intelligent manufacturing of brewing, manufacturing, home economics, health care, entertainment, education, public security event handling, etc will be a growing demand for robots, robot industry will usher in a new huge development space, the independent brand robots will develop further.

(iv) the application field continues to expand

Since 2015, on the one hand, the national level of the ministry of industry and information technology on promoting the development of the industrial robot industry guidance ", "industrial raw materials two depth fusion to plan (2015-2018)", "less explosive production safety (not) humanization special project implementation plan" and other relevant policies to push implementation, on the other hand, the local government also issued relevant measures.Such as guangdong province puts forward intelligent manufacturing gripper for promoting informatization and industrialization fusion, actively implement the "equipment substitution" and "production line and production system" project, and develop in our province ten big demonstration base of intelligent manufacturing, vigorously develop the industrial robot.Foshan promotes the application of industrial robots in the fields of automobile manufacturing, ceramic appliances, mechanical equipment and metal processing.Anhui province promotes the application of industrial robots in automobile, home appliances, engineering machinery, shipbuilding and other industries.Industrial robot application domain from the current car, electronics, metal products, rubber, plastic and other industries, has gradually extended to the textile, logistics, national defense, civil, pharmaceutical, semiconductor, food, raw materials and other industries.

Is expected in 2016, as the key positions and robot replace engineering, safety in production (not) humanization special engineering and new application demonstration of policy implementation, application fields of industrial robots is expected to extend to the intensity of labor of spinning and weaving, the logistics industry, high degree of risk of national defense and civil industry, high cleanliness requirements of the pharmaceutical production environment, semiconductor, food industries, and endangering human health ceramics, brick, etc.

(5) the application area continues to expand continuously

Since 2015, due to factors such as industrial base, the enterprise will, industrial robot application areas are mainly concentrated in guangdong, jiangsu, Shanghai, Beijing and other places, the ownership of the industrial robot accounts for more than half of the country.

Is expected in 2016, with the development of west China, northeast China, the rise of central China, east take the lead in the overall strategy to speed up the implementation of regional development, in the western industrial robot usage will grow, Yangtze river delta, the pearl river delta and other high-end manufacturing area will also be a greater use of industrial robots.The development outlook of China's robot industry in 2016

Two, several issues that need to be concerned

(1) the product is mainly low-end

In 2016, the robot industry in China still has a big gap between the overall technology and foreign advanced level.The situation of domestic industrial robots is given priority to with low-end products is still difficult to reverse, the main production handling and loading robot, most of the three axis and four axis robot, used in automobile manufacturing, welding and other high-end industry in the field of six axis or more high-end industrial robot market mainly by Japan and the European and American enterprises, domestic six axis industrial robots new installed capacity of less than 10% of the country's industrial robots.

(2) weak capacity for independent innovation

In 2016, the lack of original results and innovative ideas of core and key technologies and the lack of enterprise and market demand remain outstanding.The high reliability basic features of industrial robots, product design, materials and technology, mainframe production and system integration levels are far from developed countries.The technical gap of the precision reducer, servo motor, servo driver, controller and other high reliability basic features is particularly prominent, and it has long been dependent on import.Accurate control of service robots, multiple sensor information fusion and intelligent control, precision gear reducer and servo drives, and other core parts, processing and assembling process technology there is a big gap with foreign advanced products.

(iii) enterprise cost pressure is great

In 2016, the long-term dependence of core components on imports remains difficult to change, and the cost of enterprises is high.In 2015, about 75 per cent of the precision reducers were imported from Japan, with the main suppliers being hamernaco, nabosk and sumitomo.The servo motor and drive more than 80% depend on the import, mainly from Japan, Europe and the United States and China Taiwan region.Key parts imported in great quantities, cause a large domestic enterprises production cost pressure, than to the foreign enterprises, domestic enterprises to buy gear reducer, with nearly four times higher price at nearly twice the price to buy the servo drive.

(4) independent brand recognition is not high

Entering 2016, China's robot market will continue to be dominated by foreign companies and the independent brand needs to grow and grow stronger.Because the user enterprise have got used to the foreign brand, especially the usage of the largest and most of equipment quality requirement automobile and electronics industries, cause the body and parts of its own brand products cannot be put into the market as soon as possible, even with an experience of successful application of products is also difficult to realize the popularization and application.Secondly, the scale of industrial robot production enterprises in China is generally small.Among them, ninety percent enterprise scale is in 100 million yuan the following, even leading enterprises in shenyang siasun 2014 sales revenue reached 1.52 billion yuan, but with yaskawa, fanuc, kuka sales income of more than ten billion yuan of foreign companies to ratio, smaller still.Once again, competition from foreign products is fierce.In 2014, domestic industrial robots sold 17,000 units in China, accounting for less than 30% of total market share.Foreign enterprises are actively expanding their production, and from the assembly to the key parts production.For example, ABB and anchuan have established production bases in China.In 2015, Japan nabosk corporation and Shanghai electromechanical co., LTD. Invested in the new high-tech zone, and planned to put into production at the end of 2016 with an annual output of 200,000 precision reducers.

(5) the industry standard needs further specification

In 2015, the national development and reform commission, in order to promote our country independent brand industrial robot technology and core competitiveness, promote the industrial robot industry certification standards and regulations in our country, in special industries and technical transformation projects set up "industrial robots third-party inspection detection capability - national robot detection and evaluation center (hereinafter referred to as the evaluation center)" projects, the center is headquartered in Shanghai, and in Beijing, guangzhou, chongqing, shenyang, wuhu and set up a branch.

Into the 2016, with the assessment center and other departments in the standard specification, the advancement of work certification testing implementation in our country in terms of robots lack of industry standards and certification standard situation is expected to be improved, in the design of the products when the physical security, security, information security function specification index is expected to get unified, is expected to promote domestic robot product quality improvement.

3. Suggestions should be taken

(1) improve the policy support system

The first is to introduce corresponding support policies in terms of capital, taxation and product sales subsidies, so as to raise the utilization rate of domestic industrial robots.To implement tax preferential policies for production enterprises;To expand the application guide catalogue for the first set of major technical equipment to promote the development and application of autonomous brand industrial robots.Second, research and formulate industry application guidance policy.For example, some toxic, harmful and dangerous jobs must be replaced by robots.For high temperature, high noise and other environmental bad jobs, encourage robots to replace labor.Allow leasing companies to promote the use of small businesses for robots.Third, we will encourage financial capital, venture capital and private capital to participate in the robotics industry, and support qualified enterprises to raise funds directly in overseas capital markets.

(2) step up efforts to develop technology

First, we will accelerate technological development and break through the bottleneck of industrial technology.The second is to carry out the research of the whole life cycle reliability and manufacturing process technology of industrial robots, to solve the key parts technology and realize industrialization.Third, we will make full use of and integrate existing resources, and continue to promote the construction of research and development platforms, application verification platforms and testing centers for key components.Four is the construction of artificial intelligence, perception and recognition, drive and control, such as the next generation of technology research and development platform, at the same time attention has not been robotics system into the existing such as energy, big data, safety and material in the field of technological innovation.

(3) carry out the demonstration application in depth

One is around to speed up the development demand of intelligent manufacturing in our country, promote the typical application demonstration project, in the automotive, electronics, textiles, logistics, national defense, civil, pharmaceutical, semiconductor, food and other industries to carry out the independent brands to demonstrate the application of the industrial robot.The second is to promote the industrialization demonstration application of reducer, controller, servo motor and actuator, sensor and other key parts.

(4) focusing on key products

One is based on market demand as the guide, focus on the main technical power and money, the key breakthrough in the field of automobile, electronics and other high-end application oriented 2-3 kinds of industrial robots, grasp the overall technology, and application of scale, leading to the development of industrial robot parts production enterprises in China.Secondly, according to the diversified demand characteristics of customers, select the market to launch some cost-effective products, and gradually preempt the domestic small and medium enterprise user market.

(5) accelerate the formulation of industry development plans and standards

One is to accelerate the industry's development plan, is clear about priorities, the development of industry layout and planning steps, and guide the healthy and orderly development of the industrial robot, formed by the host enterprises, system integration and spare parts service enterprise coordinated development of the whole industry chain and industry system.Second, strengthen top-level design, formulate industry standards and key technical standards, as well as product standards and relevant application standards.

(6) strengthen the construction of personnel personnel

First, we will push forward the training model of integrated talent cultivation and research, and establish a new mechanism for cultivating talents.Relying on the Chinese academy of sciences and other well-known research institutions, through the implementation of large-scale cooperation projects, the joint enterprises have developed multi-level technical talents from r&d, production and maintenance to system integration.The second is to use vocational training and vocational qualification system to cultivate talents through actual project training.Third, we will strengthen the introduction of high-level talents and attract overseas students to innovate and start businesses.