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Economic daily: Chinas new economic momentum has begun to gather

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Economic daily: Chinas new economic momentum has begun to gather

Release date:2017-01-24 Author: Click:

 

Xu shaoshi, head of the NDRC, talked about supply-side structural reform and responded to the current economic hotspots -- the new momentum of China's economy has begun to gather

China's economy is expected to exceed 70 trillion yuan in 2016, with an increase of about 5 trillion yuan.In the future for a period of time will usher in a new round of economic rise period, is expected before the Spring Festival can be completed in 2017 annual steel production capacity of coal to plan, "zombie" companies will speed up exit shut down, China's total leverage at the medium level in the major economies and are not obvious on the high side

The state council information office held a news conference on January 10, and xu shaoshi, director of the national development and reform commission, responded to the current economic hot issues.Xu shaoshi said that in 2016 China's economy is expected to exceed 70 trillion yuan, the increment is about 5 trillion yuan, the increment and the growth of 10% increment of the basic five years ago, the equivalent of 1994 years of Chinese economy, in the performance of the world's major economies are prominent.

As major deployment of the CPC central committee, the supply side structural reforms over the past year a remarkable: "three to one drop a fill" produced results, to annual production tasks have overfulfilled, ahead of debts into shares and corporate merger and reorganization and orderly marketability advancement, the entity economic costs fell, key areas for short board also achieved positive results.

"Supply side structural reform in our country won more recognition in the world, some well-known international agencies, media, with the closure of outdated capacity, enterprise merger and reorganization, debts into shares, assets securitization, etc, the Chinese economy new kinetic energy has already begun to gather, in the future for a period of time will usher in a new round of economic rise cycle."Xu said.According to the "death rate", which is widely concerned with public opinion, xu said that some cases have their particularity and need not be interpreted too much.Previously, the ministry of finance and the state administration of taxation made analysis and response from the perspective of tax reform and tax burden, and concluded that the overall level of our country's macro tax burden was not high."In fact, the analysis of this problem requires both the absolute cost and the relative cost.If you want to see the case, you should also look at the whole.In order to see the index of cost competitiveness, we should also look at the specific values of the component index, consider the above factors and make a comparative analysis of objective science.Xu said.

Xu shaoshi, for example, January to November last year, the national industrial enterprises above designated size per one hundred yuan's main revenue costs fell 0.14 yuan, advocate business wu income margin year-on-year increase of 0.26%.Preliminary estimates put the cost of enterprises at about 1 trillion yuan last year.Which, through the "battalion to add" measures such as tax cuts JiangFei about $550 billion, through the thermal coal price linkage and distribution electricity price reform, reduce the enterprise used to cost about 200 billion yuan, the interest burden fell by about 78.7 billion yuan, the logistics cost about 35 billion yuan.To attract foreign capital and foreign investment in recent years the emergence of new changes, xu shaoshi said that the Chinese government support ability, conditional enterprise in foreign investment of the real compliance activities, to participate in the construction of the "area" and the international cooperation capacity, not only conducive to our industrial transformation and upgrading, and conducive to promote pragmatic cooperation around the world.At the same time, there are some irrational tendencies in outbound investment and foreign investment, which may lead to risks to both investors and investment destination countries, which should be strengthened.Current, for large noncore investment and some non-standard behavior of authenticity, compliance audit, guide the investment enterprise prudence, precise, rational investment is necessary, but supports this policy does not change nor foreign investment.

When it comes to to capacity and coal prices rising relations, xu shaoshi said last year steel coal to the process of production capacity, price fluctuation is relatively large, "the reason is that it is the early stage of the super, 2 it is inventory to cover, three is the active production, four is policy expectations.But overall, there is no fundamental change in supply and demand fundamentals. Price fluctuation is a comprehensive result of a short-term factor, which is also in line with the trend of improving economic stability and increasing demand.It is reported, according to the above situation, the national development and reform commission jointly with relevant departments, trade associations to ordered the release of the highly efficient production capacity, advanced guiding coal enterprises signed a long-term agreement, specification price index and distribute, to strengthen the railway capacity safeguard measures, such as the effective response.Xu said he expects to complete the 2017 annual steel and coal production capacity plan before the Spring Festival, and "zombie enterprise" as the "cow nose" will accelerate the exit and closure.At the same time, we should keep the safety production, properly resettle employees, abide by the rules and integrity, and ensure the stable supply of these four bottom lines.

There is a view that high leverage is a big risk for China.Xu shaoshi said, from the recent bank for international settlements, the international monetary fund (imf) and the Chinese academy of social sciences of measured data, the conclusion, is China's total leverage or at a medium level, in major economies are not obvious on the high side.He said it was important to analyze China's debt problem in three ways: one is that China's debt has a high savings rate;Second, China is mainly in debt, with a very low external debt ratio.Third, the high leverage ratio of enterprises is related to domestic financing methods.

"Leverage is relatively small in terms of high savings, which is different from other economies.From international experience, external debt is more likely to trigger a debt crisis.As a result of our capital market is not developed, so a lot of this indirect financing as the main way of financing is bank loans, the proportion of direct financing, especially equity financing is not high, so the enterprise high debt levels."Xu shaoshi said, explaining that in October last year the national actively yet prudently reduce leverage enterprise files, positive response by the relevant aspects, there are 23 companies signed a market-oriented debt convertible framework agreement, agreement total more than 300 billion yuan.

"There should be two perspectives on China's economy. First, China's economy is entering a new normal. Its speed is changing, its structure is optimized, and its power is shifting.The second is to look at the situation, trend and trend of China's economy so that you may draw different conclusions.Again, in 2017, we have the confidence, the conditions and the ability to ensure that the economy operates within a reasonable range.Xu said.

Excerpt from this article: economic daily


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