The supply of surplus energy market has increased uncertainty

Since 2015, the global economic recovery has been slow and the energy market still faces uncertainties.Recently, in the global energy security, a think-tank, BBS, graduate school of Chinese academy of social sciences, international energy security research center released the energy of the world development report 2015 pointed out that since 2014, the international economy and great changes have taken place in the energy situation, especially in oil prices is not optimistic, not only can cause the change of the global energy structure, will also affect the world economy and politics.

The world's energy supply exceeds demand

The energy in the world development report 2015 pointed out that since the second half of 2014, the global economic growth is still low, and with the us dollar effect of industrialization, many country's currency devaluation, capital outflow phenomenon appeared in some economies, caused to the world economy especially in emerging markets and economies in developing countries is growing concern about the outlook.

In 2014, the international energy market, as a bellwether international crude oil price in the market, rapid fall, big changes have taken place in energy market supply and demand relations, the situation of present a sufficient supply and demand, lack of power, especially by oil as the main body of the liquid fuel supply ability significantly more than the consumer demand.

In terms of energy supply, the increase in supply capacity of the global energy market comes mainly from the United States.Is a U.S. shale gas are edging towards the international market, Saudi Arabia and other Opec countries refused to cut production to maintain the established market share, has contributed to the trend of international oil prices, exacerbated by the global excess supply of crude oil.Second, the world's countries are actively developing new and renewable energy sources, especially in the power industry, and renewable energy has become an indispensable and important source.

In terms of energy demand, the main countries in the world economy is still in the doldrums, according to the UN economic and social affairs of the 2015 world economic situation and outlook is expected, in 2015 and 2016, the world economy will grow 3.1% and 3.3%, respectively, the low speed of economic growth will no doubt make energy demand growth is slowing.However, the slowdown in global energy demand will provide more room for emerging economies and even developed countries to accelerate their energy strategy adjustment and move towards healthy and sustainable development.

Oil prices affect energy structures

In fact, the 2015 world economic growth prospects are not optimistic, in addition to the American economy overall is better, China, Japan, Europe and there was a problem in the economic situation in emerging market countries, energy demand growth outlook is very limited.In this context, the price of oil will remain low in the years to come.

The world energy development report 2015 argues that low oil prices will affect global energy production and consumption structures.In the high oil price period, the development of alternative energy is highly regarded.Among them, the focus on developing unconventional oil and gas resources, including shale oil, shale gas, ethanol, and began to discuss whether the arctic oil and gas resources development, deep sea oil and gas resources, such as oil and natural gas exports to outside, directly increase the marginal global energy supply, had a great influence on international oil prices fell.

When international oil prices fell 60% on conventional and unconventional oil and gas drilling new investment is restrained, is likely to lead to the original investment will continue to save the sunk costs, and the new investment will be postponed.

The price of oil has inevitably affected natural gas trading because of the way the international gas trade has been linked to oil prices, and the price of natural gas has started to fall.The cost gap between renewable energy and renewable energy has been further widened as oil prices fall and economic growth is weak, driving down the price of other traditional sources of energy such as coal and natural gas.If there is no environmental regulation and protection of carbon emissions trading, the development momentum of renewable energy will be oppressed.Even so, China, Japan, India and other countries of its nuclear power plan is not affected, energy importer of all countries, particularly in reducing dependence on fossil fuels has been a consensus.At the same time, key Opec members to accept lower prices to maintain market share this choice, basic agree, otherwise let the sustained high oil prices, its share of the market will be more less.

Lower oil prices affect the global economy

The world energy development report 2015 argues that low oil prices will have a profound impact on the world economic and political landscape.International oil prices, if they stay low for a long time, are bound to affect global interests.According to the concept of economic rent, the high cost oil fields will gradually withdraw from suppliers and cede market share to low-cost oil fields in the long term.From the point of view of oil-producing countries, countries with higher production costs are set to cut output from high-cost oilfields and increase production of low-cost oil fields.In the short term, therefore, may appear a strange phenomenon, namely a drop in oil prices, oil supply increases instead, thus further aggravate the pressure of oil prices, because those who rely on oil revenues, the high cost of producing the congress to increase production.But in the longer term, oil supplies will fall as new investments dwindles and high-cost fields exit.

Analysis of energy in the world development report 2015, at present, the market share of the Middle East, north Africa, countries may increase, part make up the loss caused by the falling oil prices, Russia, venezuela, Iran's market share is likely to decline for a long time, Brazil, Argentina, these countries give priority to in order to deep sea oil and gas can reduce new investment, the United States began to study whether to scrap oil exports, Russia stepped up and asia-pacific countries, especially China's economic ties, in order to maintain economic stability and recovery growth for a long time.

Because international oil prices are priced in dollars, oil prices have a close relationship with the dollar.International oil prices will inevitably accompanied by the dollar, for now, the dollar on the world's major currency appreciation is very obvious, and guide the international capital flow to the United States, for other economies outside the United States credit crunch and deflation, capital liquidity.At the same time, prices of commodities and real estate in China, Europe and Japan have been losing momentum, so the change in oil prices will have a profound impact on the global macro economy.

According to the world energy development report 2015, the next rise in oil prices may need to wait for the world economy's new growth cycle to look at the cycle of oil prices.At the appointed time, reduce the effect of oil and gas exploration investment and the world economic growth, the demand effect of superposition will form a new round of oil price rise quickly, and oil trough the length of time, depending on when the world will be able to get rid of the economic downturn.

Relevant report

Energy security needs to be addressed by global economic cooperation

Around the world are in danger of instability and changing and challenge, under the condition of economy energy security must be in accordance with the reasonable price guarantee uninterrupted for consumers to provide the necessary amount of fuel and energy, the required quality.A few days ago, the fourth global energy security, a think-tank in BBS, the China energy fund committee, executive vice President and secretary general ho believes that energy belongs to the whole human society, but because of the complexity of the energy security and inclusive, at present, the international energy mechanism cannot meet the demands of energy security, energy security is still expanding, need from the narrow sense of national level to the generalized global level in different areas, different levels of cooperation.

The number of the Chinese academy of social sciences institute of economic and technical and economic area along the way: connectivity, common development "team believes that human beings since the industrial revolution, the world's economic growth is never a balanced, only the various conditions are very modest region, to realize the transformation from traditional economy to modern economy, and most areas did not enjoy the modern industrial civilization, after the industrial civilization brought about by the comfort and peace, whether between countries or in a country, especially the internal power of the area between the development gap can be seen everywhere.

In fact, the world economy is more in accordance with the growth pole, radiation area, peripheral areas, lagging behind areas such pattern to the layout, leading to widespread development gap, become one of the roots of the modern world conflicts, blocking the civilization, cultural exchange and fusion between, deepened the civilization, cultural differences and the diaphragm, the breeding ground for terrorism and extremism, threat to world peace.

The China energy fund committee, executive vice President and secretary general ho introduction, at present, the world still has a population of 1.1 billion in a state of energy poverty, but due to the social focus solely on the energy security of the industrialized countries, while ignoring the energy security of developing countries, lead to the energy problem in the developed countries and developing countries the energy problem is put in bigger difference and gap.

YuriShafranik believes that former Russian energy minister Hon, between various countries in the world there's a difference between culture and world view, but the task of energy security is not for these, but to accept the owner in the difference in interest and ability to the objective reality, make your own arrangements for private residence in the world family, the whole family to development and prosperity of the surrounding area.

American council on energy security and global security research institute on behalf of Dr. GalLuft believes that energy not only has the accessibility and availability, but also has affordable, need to let every country are protected under the energy chain, and with as little energy as possible to support the rapid development of economy.

In 2014, great changes have taken place in the international economy and the energy situation, growth in abundant supply and demand, under the dual role of international oil prices drop sharply, global economic and political landscape changed accordingly.Is a crisis in Ukraine for energy supply in the European Union has formed the new risks, the second is the us and Europe face new sanctions against the Russian oil and gas investment and production difficulties, three are China and the United States signed the agreement on greenhouse gases emission reduction resources, long-term gas trade agreement between China and Russia, but China's energy and power consumption growth is slow, a wide range of haze weather continues to develop, become China's environmental safety and the significant risk factor for people's health.

In fact, energy security is an important component of overall energy policy and leading national security. It has become a global problem and needs to be solved globally.But to ensure energy security, including global energy security is clashed with modern energy one of the major systemic challenges, especially the formation of new pattern of energy security, producers and consumers to form a new balance between benefit and transit countries, to ensure fair distribution of risks and sustainability in the process of long-term investment.

According to former Russian energy minister Hon. YuriShafranik introduction, in the early 1990 s, people began to understand, energy security can't just rely on a country's efforts to solve, solve the problem of energy security through the way of economic cooperation.Under the new geopolitical condition, the energy cooperation of mutual benefit to become the economic development and to ensure that individual countries and regions, as the world's energy security issues within the scope of a major solution.Therefore, it is necessary to safeguard energy security from national sovereignty, and to find a transparent and operable way to ensure energy security globally.First, the world's development gap must be eliminated, innovation in developed countries and technological progress.At the same time, promote the universal development of the world and promote the spread of economic growth and social development from developed regions to less-developed regions, thus promoting the economic transformation and sustainable development of less-developed countries.

Industry insiders expect that, although the overall share of fossil fuels will fall to 81 per cent from 86 per cent in 2013, most of the global energy demand will continue to rely on fossil fuels.However, the energy structure dip to a low carbon fuel: over the next 20 years, around a third of the new energy demand by gas meet, a third meet together by oil and coal, a third by non-fossil fuels.